Interactive Forecaster: What impact will iOS 14 have on ad prices?

It's no secret that iOS 14's IDFA deprecation is due to wreak havoc amongst mobile advertisers. Even though the relevant changes have been pushed back to early 2021, there's still a great amount of uncertainty about how ad markets will react to the shock.

One thing's for certain though, and this is that mobile advertisers with strict CPI targets can expect to see reduced spend when the changes come into play. This is because IDFA deprecation is likely to lead to poorer ad targeting, and with that lower click-through and install rates.

The trouble doesn't stop there though; a lack of user-level data will prevent advertisers from being able to effectively optimise ad delivery towards high value users. For the many apps that rely on a small percentage of users to bring in a large percentage of their revenues, this will reduce the CPI targets that those apps are able to advertise within.

In short, it's a perfect storm. Drops in click-through and install rates will cause CPIs to rise, while drops in LTV will cause CPI targets to decrease, leaving advertisers with a real challenge to drive volume efficiently.

The Interactive Forecaster

To help understand how IDFA deprecation is likely to impact your app marketing, I've put together the following forecaster using Causal. The model that the forecaster is based on an article by Eric Seufert.

The forecaster has various different sets of assumptions along the top. There are assumptions around you current marketing metrics, your current LTV model, and corresponding assumptions about how both of those will change post-IDFA-deprecation.

Feel free to change these assumptions to match your own marketing campaigns, to see how IDFA deprecation is likely to affect you. If you'd like to customise the model further, click Use this template in the top right.

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