mack grenfell

UK Covid-19 Exponential Growth Model

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Below is an interactive forecaster which models different potential outcomes of the Covid-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom.

It's inspired by Liz Specht's Twitter thread, in which she considers the effects of Covid-19's exponential growth in the US. Liz's thread, and this forecaster, look at top-level case metrics, as well as the impact those metrics could have on national health systems.

The forecaster is fully interactive, meaning you can change any of the input variables listed at the top, and the results will update accordingly.

Have a go changing the variables to see just how much a small difference in the growth rate could affect overall fatality numbers, or how hospitalising more Covid-19 patients could accelerate the demand for hospital beds.

Please note that the model doesn't intend to provide accurate forecasts; its purpose is to illustrate how all the different variables at play affect one another.

Found this forecaster useful? Have thoughts on how it can be improved? Reach out to me on Twitter @mackgrenfell

To create your own forecasts and models, sign up at causal.app